Alabama 24 - 38 Oklahoma (9:03 left in 4th Quarter)

Alabama has two good running backs, Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon.  Together, they have 21 carries for 159 yards -- an average of 7.6 yards per carry.  But for reasons I don't understand, the Alabama coaching staff has very little interest in running the ball.  They keep having A.J. McCarron try to throw instead.  This worked for awhile, but McCarron has been completely overwhelmed by Oklahoma's blitzing attack.  He has thrown two interceptions and been sacked six times -- not to mention a host of hurried passes and intentional grounding calls.  In other words, rather than relying on its advantage -- the physical strength of its running game -- Alabama adopted a plan that played to Oklahoma's advantage -- its team speed.

The same thing has happened on the other side of the ball, where Oklahoma's speed has made Alabama's defense look like the Keystone Kops.  Once again, Alabama has done well in the running phase of the game -- holding OU to 72 yards on 22 carries.  But OU quarterback Trevor Knight is 29-40 for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Of course, we should also remember the difference in turnovers.  According to some guy I found on the Internet, in 2012 NFL teams with a turnover difference of plus-2 went 43-10 -- a winning percentage of 81 percent.  In tonight's game, Oklahoma had only one turnover -- an interception down the middle of the field in the first quarter.  That turnover gave the ball to Alabama deep in its own territory -- it was basically like a punt.  But Alabama had three turnovers, each of which was devastating:

1.  After the OU interception, McCarron threw an interception of his own, giving the ball right back to the Sooners.  On the next play, Knight threw his first touchdown pass of the game.

2.  With the score tied at 17 and Alabama about to take the lead, T.J. Yeldon fumbled on the OU 8.  A few plays later, the Sooners led 24-17.

3.  Late in the first half, with the score 24-17, McCarron threw another interception that was returned all the way to the Alabama 13.  On the next play, OU scored to take a 31-17 lead.

So OU has benefited from a two-turnover advantage, and the three Alabama turnovers led directly to 21 Oklahoma points.  That is an almost impossible difference to overcome.