Oklahoma St. v. Baylor

On January 10, 2011, Auburn and Oregon met in a UCFC game that was also a game for the 2010 National Championship.  Early in 2011 season, Auburn lost the UCFC to Clemson, and since then the UCFC has rarely featured two highly-rated teams.  But today's game features two teams with a combined record of 18-1.  Oklahoma and Texas are usually the two big guns in the Big XII, but this year Baylor has beaten Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State has beaten Texas.  As a result, these two teams are at the top of the Big XII standings:

(3) Baylor:  6-0, 9-0
(11) Oklahoma St:  6-1, 9-1
Texas:  6-1, 7-3
Oklahoma:  5-2, 8-2
Kansas St:  4-3, 6-4
Texas Tech:  4-4, 7-4
Texas Christian:  2-6, 4-7
W. Virginia:  2-6, 4-7
Kansas:  1-6, 3-7
Iowa St:  0-7, 1-9

It is 349 miles up I-35 from Baylor's home in Waco, Tex. to Stillwater, Okla. -- home of the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  But for most of its history, Baylor was in the old Southwest Conference, while Oklahoma State was in the old Big 8.  So the teams didn't play regularly until 1996.  Oklahoma State leads the all-time series 18-13, but the Cowboys have beaten Baylor in 15 of the last 17 seasons.  The Bears haven't won in Stillwater since 1939.

This is undoubtedly the biggest Baylor/Oklahoma State game ever.  For most of their histories, these teams have not been very formidable.  Out of 125 D-1A schools, Oklahoma State ranks 80th in all-time winning percentage, while Baylor is 83d.  But they have been great this year.  Baylor's triumphs have been qualified in some detail on this blog, so we don't need to repeat them.  But Oklahoma State has been almost as good as Baylor.  Here's what they've done this year (home teams listed first):

08/31/13:  Oklahoma St. 21 - 3 Mississippi St. (in Houston)
09/07/13:  Tex-San Antonio 35 - 56 Oklahoma St.
09/14/13:  Oklahoma St. 59 - 3 Lamar
09/28/13:  W. Virginia 30 - 21 Oklahoma St.
10/05/13:  Oklahoma St. 33 - 29 Kansas St.
10/19/13:  Oklahoma St. 24 - 10 Texas Christian
10/26/13:  Iowa St. 27 - 58 Oklahoma St.
11/02/13:  Texas Tech 34 - 52 Oklahoma St.
11/09/13:  Oklahoma St. 42 - 6 Kansas
11/16/13:  Texas 13 - 38 Oklahoma St.

So except for a bad day in West Virginia, which could happen to almost anyone, Oklahoma State has been invincible -- and they seem to be getting better as the year goes on.  Tonight, in the cold, on their home field, they will be very tough to beat.

Vegas, however, still believes in Baylor.  They like the Bears by 8 in a game where the over-under line is 78.  That would work out to a final score of 43-35 for the Bears.  I don't see Baylor scoring that many points tonight.  In fact, I'm picking Oklahoma State to pull this one out, and to bring Baylor's long run to an end.