Holiday Bowl: UCLA v. Baylor

Usually, by the end of the season, the team holding the UCFC is a conference champion.  In fact, the UCFC holder often plays for the national title.  But this year, Baylor had a record of 4-5 when it took the crown thanks to a stunning upset over Kansas State on November 17.  The Bears held on with hard-fought wins over Texas Tech (52-45) and Oklahoma State (41-34), meaning that they get to take the Big Gold Trophy out to San Diego for a Holiday Bowl match-up with UCLA.  As a result, 2013 will be the first year since 1996 with no UCFC game in January.

I have no idea who will win tonight.  Baylor lost five out of six games from late September to early November, but then won three in a row to finish off its season with a record of 7-5.  To some extent, the Bears simply had their luck even out -- a lot of their early losses could have been wins, and their last two wins could have been losses.  But their offense has been red-hot down the stretch, and they will expect to put a lot of points on the board.  As for UCLA, they are also hard to read.  First-year coach Jim Mora seemed to have things well in hand through 11 games -- the Bruins had a record of 9-2 and they beat USC 38-28.  But their season ended with back-to-back losses to Stanford (in the last game of the regular season and in the Pac-12 Championship).  On the other hand, the Holiday Bowl is right down the road from UCLA in San Diego, so the Bruins should have a good rooting section at tonight's game.

Putting it all together, Vegas has made UCLA a three-point favorite in a game where the over-under line is 82.  That would work out to something like a 42-39 Bruins victory, and that score does sound like the typical game we've seen from Baylor this year.