Texas Tech v. Baylor (at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Tex.)

With Baylor's upset of Kansas State, we now know that the UCFC will be held by one of three teams going into the bowls.  This is Texas Tech's last game of the year, so if they win today, the Red Raiders (4-4, 7-4) will take the Big Gold Trophy to a bowl.  If Baylor (2-5, 5-5) wins, they will defend the title next week against Oklahoma St (5-2, 7-3).  So one of those three teams -- Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma State -- will be the UCFC Holder going into bowl season.  This seems appropriate, as the UCFC match-ups this year have largely consisted of games featuring mid-level Big XII competition.

This is one of the few traditional rivalry games we've had on the UCFC schedule this year.  Texas Tech and Baylor are old rivals going back to their days in the Southwest Conference.  In fact, this will be their 71st meeting -- the most games Texas Tech has played against anyone.  Texas Tech leads the all-time series 36-33-1.  This will be the fourth time the Bears and Red Raiders have played for the UCFC, and the Red Raiders have won all three prior match-ups.  On November 11, 1932, Texas Tech beat Baylor 14-2.  On November 17, 1933, Texas Tech beat Baylor 13-0.  On November 16, 1991, Texas Tech beat Baylor 31-24.

Since 2009, this game has been played either at Cowboys Stadium or the Cotton Bowl, and I can certainly see why the school from Waco and the school from Lubbock would want a chance to strut their stuff in the DFW metroplex.  They are also scheduled to play in Cowboys Stadium in 2013 and 2014.

The oddsmakers, who have made a few big mistakes in their efforts to analyze UCFC games this year, like Baylor to hold the title.  The Bears are 3 1/2 points favorites in a game where the over-under line is 80.  That would translate into something like a 42-38 win for Baylor.  Personally, I don't see Baylor running up and down the field on Texas Tech like they did last week against Kansas St.  The Red Raiders have struggled since losing the UCFC to K-State -- they lost 31-22 to Texas, beat Kansas 41-34 in double overtime, and were pasted by Oklahoma State 59-21.  But I have a feeling that they will circle the wagons in their last game of the year, and I think they're just better than Baylor.  The Red Raiders have lost to Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State -- the four best teams in the Big XII -- but they have beaten the lesser teams in conference, and I think that string will continue.